|Everybody's Got One
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Sunday, July 25, 2004
A failed non-state? Failed states are where the monsters breed. Where, on the new map, outside the connected core, the dragons be. Where the alligators gather, as the swamp shifts location. Where the gator-getters go.
Post-Taliban Afghanistan is becoming orderly again (as much as it ever was). Iraq as well, to the dismay of many. The Bekaa valley is nominally under Syrian control, but it remains a badlands. As Saudi authority continues to decay, parts of the desert become more so. Somalia, somewhat less so.
Sudan may actually provoke some sort of international intervention, which while doing little for the surviving Fur should bring in enough bumbling blue helmets and camp-followers to raise international visibility above anarchy-friendly levels. West Africa is down to a simmer as the De Beers monopoly begins to crumble, and Bush's AIDS initiative may sprinkle the sub-Saharan regions with enough NGOs to make training camps hard to conceal.
The Philippines have thoughtfully volunteered to surrender some sovereignty around Mindinao, and Indonesia is susceptible to a concerted push. The 'Stans are always a concern.
But that's for the short- and middle run. Noah Millman points to where the failure may migrate 20-25 years down the road:
Admitting Turkey to the EU, as currently constituted, makes it very difficult to conceive how both democracy and the EU survive.Because weak, it will be dangerous, in the interesting times ahead. We may have to go liberate what's left of France again after all.
posted by Kelly | 10:25 PM link