Everybody's Got One
A blog. An opinion. An elimination orifice. A dream. An agenda. A past. A hidden talent. A conceptual filter. A cross. A charism (often the same). A task. A wound. A destiny. A lost love. A blind spot. A bad habit. A secret. A passion. A soul ... okay, maybe not everybody ...
Saturday, August 07, 2004

Election projection  

What's going to happen? Elifino. I know what I think, what the trends and indicators say, what should happen, what ought to happen ... but I also know things have changed, and no one is sure how or how much. Conservatives are radicals, progressives are reactionaries, and nobody knows nothing. For starters,
  • This is the first presidential election after 9/11.
  • Also the presidential election after the off-year electoral pullback that didn't happen.
  • The news cycle is now shorter than it's ever been, running 24/7.
  • The mainstream press is more obviously partisan than any time since 1964.
  • Political discourse has been steadily defined downward over the last decade.
  • The economy is part-way through a major structural change.
  • No one knows how McCain-Feingold will work out in the short run. (In the long run, it's likely to be devastating to the Democratic party, but that's another post.)
  • There's a war on.
  • Al Qaeda gets a vote. Also Iran, OPEC, Abu Sayyaf, the Baathists in Fallujah, and Pakistan. NK has a card, too, but they won't play it unless Kerry looks likely to lose.
I can see Kerry getting anywhere from 41 to 51%; Bush from 44 to 55%; Nader from .5 to 6%. I can even see a replay, where Bush loses the popular vote and wins the Electoral College again. (And wouldn't that be fun.) But I don't know. Nobody knows. Anyone who says they do is kidding you, or themselves ... or consorting with forces best left unexplored. Someone's guess will be right, of course, but there's no way of knowing whose.

November 3 is going to be a reality check for everyone, and it can't be rushed.

posted by Kelly | 11:53 AM link